Fogo volcano (Cape Verde) activity update: decreasing lava effusion

According to local press, volcanologist João Fonseca, responsible for volcanic monitoring and equipment maintenance at Fogo volcano, mentioned that volcanic activity shows signs of decreasing and that the eruption could be approaching its end.
Still, the northern lobe of the recently active lava flow to the west remained active during the past days and smaller lobes advanced through more farm land in the Cova Tina area.

The eruption, worse than the 1995 one, has already had a severe short- and medium- to long-term impact on the island's economy and counts as one of the worst volcanic disasters in recent decades. On the positive side, at least, there were no fatalities.

- The short-term consequences are obvious: destruction of homes, infrastructure supporting tourism, agriculture (wine production, storage and processing facilities destroyed).
- The medium- and long-term consequences are diverse. The loss of fertile land decreases the ability of the caldera area to produce cultivated plants, such as beans, squash, grapes etc. Less surface is available as for livestock to feed on. This decreases drastically the number of people the land now can support in the long term - it will take many decades if not centuries for the lava flow to become fertile land again.
Tourism in turn could however profit from the changes the eruption has brought as a geological attraction.

Whether an acceptable economic balance can return to the inhabitants of the caldera will depend on a number of factors, such as:
- How investment, partly funded by donations collected during the crisis, will be used and how it will be prioritized based on a volcanic hazard model.
- The willingness of residents to return and rebuild.

If the villages of Portela and Bangaeira are reconstructed on the lava flow, there is a good chance that the next lava flow - which inevitably will occur in some time in the future, as Fogo continues to be a very active volcano - will choose a different path and spare them.